Russia’s dire future
Who could unite the ununitable — on both sides of the Atlantic? President Putin has undoubtedly ac-complished the impossible by bringing together the opposing political forces in the West.
No, they did not «unite» in the traditional sense. Still, pro-socialist circles demonstrate a joint front with pro-conservative forces against the Kremlin. Moreover, in response to the unprovoked Russian attack, the West condemned it nonstop. (There are marginal groups of pseudo-conservatives who justify Putin’s aggression, but they are undoubtedly in the minority).
That alone indicates that an extraordinary event has occurred. However, it is not simply a proverbial perfect storm. As a matter of fact, we are experiencing a storm of biblical proportions — if one dares to look at the possible future.
At the end of 2021, the left, tarnished in the coronavirus battles (we refer to the pandemic’s political, not biological component), needed a pause. In the early stages, the left welcomed the pandemic enthusiastically because, as everyone knows, leftists practice the «no crisis to waste» mode of operation. However, they had no idea how to end it without losing (political) face, and Putin’s aggression has opened an escape hatch. The coronavirus pandemic further compressed the coil spring until Putin foolishly released it. By doing so, he has achieved unbelievable things.
While everybody is focused on Ukraine’s suffering, it is time to look at the most probable post-war settlement terms. Russia has entered a challenging period. For example, the head of the Russian delegation, which pretends to negotiate with Ukraine, is a former Russian minister of culture, Vladimir Medinsky. He is known for saying that «the fact that Russia has been preserved and developed, proves that our people have one extra chromosome.»
Well, after a month or so of fighting, the Russian military — possessing an «extra chromosome» — is no longer respected. During the height of the nuclear scare, the Soviet Union was covered with propaganda posters like «attention: the enemy is eavesdropping.» In 2022, Russians must be schooled in «attention: the enemy is taking notice.» Those concerned about the Soviet-era nukes are, in reality, worrying more about the mental health of the Kremlin nano-fuehrer than the actual missiles and warheads.
China is no doubt paying attention. Siberia, which is rich in all the elements of the Mendeleev Periodic Table, could be picked up quickly with little resistance — and with the wholehearted support of the local Russian population. The current inhabitants of South Siberia are practically indistinguishable from the Northern Chinese population. For the last decade, a Russian citizen in Siberia marrying a Chinese citizen has been widely considered a stroke of good luck. These Russians would definitely greet the Chinese army — contrary to what Ukrainians did for Russians.
After every day passes without Ukrainian capitulation, Siberia appears to become more and more attractive as an acquisition target rather than well equipped, determined, and supported by Western countries Taiwan. Like everyone else, China has been stunned by the Ukrainian resistance, but a more significant shock has been the largely unified position of the West. Although this unity against the aggressor will not deter China’s communists, they will likely put Taiwan on the back burner for now and focus on the low-hanging fruit.
Likewise, the South Kuril Islands and Sakhalin Island, currently in Russian hands but previously belonging to Japan, are giving heed. The Königsberg (today Kaliningrad) region, previously German Prussia, is also tuning in. So it is no surprise that the Russian citizens in these regions, far from Moscow, are eager to do all it takes to relieve massive economic and financial sanctions by merely switching jurisdictions.
Years from now, upon the end of silly anti-all-Russian hysteria, classics like Tchaikovsky, Dostoyevsky, Nabokov, and Brodsky will be returned in due course, and Russian scientists will be back at American universities. It’s highly likely that Russia will be almost unrecognizable by that time. It is possible that Russia might no longer occupy one-seventh of the planet’s landmass. Another reason is that the devastating sanctions are here to stay, because no one in Washington has the stomach to behave in a pro-Putin manner in the foreseeable future.
The end of Russia as we know it due to economic blockade was brought up exclusively by Russia’s self-inflicted wounds. Russia unwisely started shelling and bombing neighboring poor Ukraine, with just one-third GDP per capita compared to Russia’s. Instead of a «victorious little war,» Russia must brace for a multitude of black swan events. The biblical judgment over Russia is coming, assured by the unprecedented alliance of the left, the right, and the valor of the newborn Ukrainian nation. Rephrasing William Gibson, the Russian defeat is already here — it is just not evenly distributed.
Игорь ГИНДЛЕР
