Enjoy the Show – SCOTUS

Why? Because per Biden, having an African American woman on SCOTUS is long overdue. Naturally, it worked so well for the VP pick. BTW, African Americans are about 12% of the population and Clarence Thomas is already 11% of the SCOTUS, so not sure the urgency, but we all understand. So, will this be a smooth and uneventful affirmation process for the dems?

A lot of our fellow Republicans are shaking their fists decrying “remember Kavanaugh” as if it is Alamo we are talking about. So, will this be a major battle and what can GOP do? I would say it all depends on how resolved and unified the GOP camp is. And that, in turn, depends on a few factors.

So, as to the process. First, Biden’s pick goes to the Judicial Committee for the laundry. The committee is 11 Democrats and 11 Republicans. We got no weak links there. Per Schumer/ McConnell power sharing agreement back in February 2021, VP Kamala gets to break the tie on the floor, but not on a Committee. Will Schumer be successful in wiggling out of this agreement? Maybe. Depends on how determined McConnell is to hold him to it.

So if Judicial Committee Republicans stick together, and effectively deny Biden a quorum, Schumer does not get a majority nomination. It gets fuzzy here, but it might mean that once the nominee hits the Senate floor, if it even can in that case, Republicans can go Filibuster/ Cloture route. In that case, Dems would need 60 votes to override it, which means they need all 50 of theirs plus 10 of ours to vote for them.

So, just to be clear, whether Kamala can break the tie in the committee and whether the lack of the majority in the committee allows GOP to go the filibuster route once on the floor will be the most contentious question of this nomination and a bunch of legal minds are already chiming in. No clear answer.

How united are Dems? Ever more powerful Munchin already started mumbling that he will not just rubber-stamp Biden’s pick. He is looking to switch parties, it sounds like. Plus, we know that he supports filibuster and will not let it be suspended for the SCOTUS nomination, he said so already. Sinema is another weak link for the dems, who knows what she will do. Yet, both of them need to fall in line for Biden’s pick to sail through. If Biden goes too radical in his choice, Munchin might bail. As to our side. Collins, empowered by her re-election being in a distant 2027, might defect, but unlikely. Murkowski is facing a strong primary challenger and is fighting for her political life, so we are most likely safe as to her. Romney will not dare. Everyone else is a trooper. So, if we get to the filibuster situation, we win, as it is 52 votes at most where 60 are needed.

As democrats are in a rush to confirm before Biden’s ratings hit the floor, we will see this drama unfold in the next month or so. It will be interesting. In the very worst case, we are losing a decent leftie judge and getting a democratic political hack to join the two others. It is still 3 to 6. Not too critical. Enjoy the show.

Maria Rutenburg